Projects
Client: Smartgroup
Title: How much EV drivers could save as petrol prices rise
Client’s challenge:
Amidst surging global oil prices and a cost-of-living squeeze, Smartgroup needed a rapid, data-driven analysis to communicate the benefits to consumers from electric vehicle (EV) adoption. They sought a break-even analysis to demonstrate the financial benefits of salary packaging an EV through a novated lease compared to financing a traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. The challenge was to deliver a rigorous, media-ready report within a highly compressed timeframe to support their public engagement.
Our solution:
Positive Economics Advisory conducted rapid data gathering, literature review, and detailed fuel prices modelling under a tight timeline. We performed a break-even and sensitivity analysis comparing the monthly cashflow impacts of three scenarios: a novated lease EV, a financed EV, and a financed ICE vehicle. We benchmarked entry-level EV and ICE models and modelled the impact of petrol price escalations from 2025 averages up to an 80% surge ($3.30/L) mimicking a 1979-style oil shock.
We incorporated state-by-state petrol price variations and residential electricity costs to provide a comprehensive, localised view. Our analysis suggested that leasing an EV provides siginficant montly savings for drivers compared to financing an ICE vehicle, with savings exceeding $390 under severe oil shock scenarios. The final report is published on Smartgroup's website and was widely quoted in media articles.